Seasonable and Reasonable

Relax and enjoy seasonable weather for the next few days. Temperatures are finally average for early February. Lows will continue in the middle 40s and highs will be in the upper 60s. The sky will offer a mix of sun and clouds but no substantial rain.

Our sky will be influenced by a southwesterly wind flow around the jet stream level, and a dry northerly flow closer to ground level. That means it should be brighter than gloomier this week but it can change rapidly. Toward the weekend a small region of low pressure will form in the Gulf but it looks like it should pass far enough to our south that it does not give us much rain, if any at all. However, if it tracks more northerly on Friday we'll see increasing rain chances for the weekend.

No need for panic. There was a tropical "what?" on Sunday, in the Gulf. But it is no more. While you were in your Sunday routine the National Hurricane Center was watching a tropical disturbance off the west coast of Cuba. It never amounted to much more than showers but it tells us one very important thing; Technology lets us see things now that may have always been there in the past. The more we look, the more we see.

A tropical disturbance this far outside of hurricane season is rare but not unprecedented. The southern Gulf is always warm and like our air temperature this season, it is also warmer than average. Warm water alone does not generate tropical storms. Don't try to draw conclusions about a warm winter here and the next hurricane season. The two are not bound together.