Hurricane Seasonal Forecasts

Everyone wants to know the forecast, especially when it comes to hurricanes!
Dr. Keith Blackwell is a hurricane researcher and professor at the University of South Alabama. As a former student, I can attest that one of his specialities is hurricanes.
"Early season projections were that we were going to have an above normal hurricane season, and we did as far as named storms. But the amount of activity, and the intensity and longevity of the activity was well below what it should've been with this number of storms."

With a La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, and warm waters in the Atlantic, conditions should have been prime for strong storms, but that wasn't the case this year.
"It still turned out to be a season that won't be remembered for much. Which is good for us here on the Gulf Coast."
When the storms did form, Blackwell said they got ripped apart by wind shear, or moved into very dry conditions in the Subtropical Atlantic.

But what about the pre-season forecasts?
"Seasonal forecasting is incredibly difficult. As everybody that lives on this planet knows, forecasting just a few days into the future is a difficult prospect. Forecasting months into the future, or maybe a year into the future is fraught with difficulty. There are many oscillations in the atmosphere that are not very well predicted that have significant influence on hurricane season."

For the past two years, there has not been a major hurricane striking the U.S. But even with an off forecast, several companies still find it useful.
Robert Cunningham is the Assistant Manager for Home Depot in Mobile. He says, "the forecast is very beneficial for our business, we want to for-see what's going on -- we want to be over-prepared."

Private forecasting companies and government forecasters predict the number of named storms, number of hurricanes, and major hurricanes. Revisions are made to their forecasts through the season.
Blackwell adds, "Seasonal forecasting has been remarkably good for most of the year it has been done."
One group from Colorado State has been forecasting for Hurricanes since the mid 80s.
"Like with most extended range forecasting, there's so much we don't know. We're making strides, but we're a long way from being able to predict the climate. That's essentially what hurricane forecasting is, it's climate prediction, and for the past two years we've kind of been wrong."

Blackwell says we're in an above normal hurricane cycle that started in the mid 90s. But even with this cycle, each year will not produce a catastrophic season like 2005.