Downtown Mobile Storm Surge

We saw water on Water street from Katrina- a distant storm. A category 3. What kind of storm surge do you think there could have been here if Katrina had hit Mobile county directly? And what about when a category 5 hits?

A category three storm moving north across Mobile County would send wind driven surge throughout downtown Mobile. Within the Henry Aaron loop most spots would see flooding. That’s not from rain, that’s from southeast wind pushing water inland. The surge would go westward past Claiborne, past Lawrence, past Dearborn. Barton Academy would be surrounded by water.

Just imagine a canal of water. But not just standing water. It would be surging westward from the Mobile River to here at the old Barton Academy. As it moves to the west it would spread north and south and flood most of downtown Mobile.

Travel across Dauphin Street, St. Michael, St. Louis, to St. Anthony could be done by boat except the winds would be over 120mph. Homes and businesses would get several feet of water. This is just what a category three could do.

Now consider a Category 5. That’s wind of over 155mph. Mobile has never seen such a storm but it is possible. If the center of the storm passes north in the center of the county all of downtown Mobile floods except now the water is deeper. Near the main post office the depth would be 12 to 15 feet. Mobile Bay becomes one with the area in the Henry Aaron loop. From Royal Street to the Sanger Theatre the ground floor of all structures might be gutted by moving water. Vehicles would float westward. Anyone remaining in the area after the mandatory evacuation would be stranded on the upper floors of buildings.

Here at Cathedral Square this would be a lake, with wind, waves and whitecaps. How deep? I’m 5’ 9”, it would be over my head, easily by a couple of feet.

The face of downtown would be altered by a Category 5 storm surge. Millions upon millions of dollars of structural damage would be shared by downtown businesses, offices, hotels, restaurants, and homes both by the storm surge and by the debris flying in category 5 wind of 155 mph.

This is just a simulation based on what we know. There’s too much we don’t know so there’s no guarantee that things wouldn’t be worse.