July Tropical Numbers

We are now at the start of the second month into hurricane season. And though we've been talking more about severe thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast, it's good to know what a typical July in the Tropics means for us.

During 2005, many remember two July hurricanes, Cindy and Dennis. Both storms moved through the News 5 area within about a week of each other.
Generally 2005 is the exception when we think of a 'normal hurricane season.'

Listed below are typical hurricane season statistics:
According to the National Hurricane Center, from the 1944-2005 season averages, there is normally one named storm by the end of this month.
This year Arthur formed near the Yucatan Peninsula and quickly moved inland. Arthur was a tropical storm with peak winds near 40 mph.
The strength of Arthur was typical for its early start considering the first hurricane generally forms by August 14th.

The average date for the first major hurricane of a season, category three or higher, tends to be closer to September 3rd. In fact, when you look at the usual hurriane season peak, you will notice that once September rolls around, a huge spike occurs during the first half of the month. Notable September hurricanes for the Gulf Coast include, Frederic from 1979, and Ivan of 2004.

For a storm to form in the Tropics, especially this time of year, wind shear has to be low. Wind shear is the change of speed and direction with height from a few hundred feet off the ground, to about 40,000 feet up. The forecasted wind shear off the Gulf Coast is high through the first half of the month. There are a few common places where storms like to form during July. These locations include; the Yucatan Channel through the Central Gulf Coast, up the East Coast through the Carolinas, and near the Windward Islands.

Are we due for a hurricane? We do live in hurricane alley, and hurricanes will always be a part of life. We have a limited history of hurricanes, but here is what we do know...
According to the NHC, from South Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle, the rate of return for a category one hurricane is about ten years. But that is not always the case. Thinking back since to the mid 90s, several hurricanes have moved through the News 5 area. To see those storms, check out this article: Mobile Hurricane History.
Another fact that may not be welcomed is the frequency of 150 mph wind. According to Dr. Blackwell from the University of South Alabama, the Southern tip of Florida, AND south of Pascagoula experiences 150 mph winds more than any other hurricane locations across the United States.

Fore more Hurricane information, and what you can do to prepare for the next hurricane, click on this link to view 'Are We Ready', or type in keyword hurricane in the search box at the top of wkrg.com.